US-Taliban peace accord is just a major step towards peace It will be a long road to peace. It is a vital step, more progress than any point before. But it is very complex and complicated
Despite strong opposition against this, Donald Trump, Afghan Taliban and other players kept the calm and finally after two years managed to achieve this milestone.
It’s win-win for all parties US and especially Trump can claim victory that they finally managed to end US longest war. US must review its foreign policy of regime change in the world just in case of Afghanistan it was nightmare for US, with $1.5 trillion spent another war lost in the region. The futile war, resulted in 2,5000 US casualties,20,320 American service members injured, 200,000 Afghan dead.
Different aspects of deal.
– All stakeholders are backing this up be it US, Pakistan, China, Iran Russia.
– It is more like military settlement between US and Taliban to ensure US safe exit from Afghanistan.
– There is no framework, to ensure political settlement of the dispute and Post-US withdrawal political structure
– Integration of Taliban in Afghan Army is another problem to look after.
Peace and development in Afghanistan will depend on how Afghan political leadership comes together to manage and avail this opportunity for long term political settlement that may bring lasting peace for the people of the region and Afghans in particular.
Future of Afghan Taliban
– Even though US is calling it victory of peace but Afghan Taliban view it as US surrender, they now emerged as most prominent stakeholder and are going to be the most dominate one in the future Afghan structure
– Despite tall claims of division among them they proved themselves to be highly organized under a single command while on the other hand there is clear divide on Afghan government side, especially after the Presidential elections.
– UN, US, and others will lift ban on them and it is good sign for them
– Pashtun dominated Taliban will not give much leverage to Afghan government especially Ashraf Ghani but they can develop cooperation with Non-Pashtun segments lead by Abdullah Abdullah.
– One of major challenge for them is that many groups inside Taliban will not agree to any political settlement in future moreover many segments inside Taliban are highly influenced by Al Qaeda their biggest challenge is to keep them under the watch.
One thing is for sure they will not agree for elections especially after the recent alleged rigged elections which means it is going to be political settlement via political dialogue
Pakistan’s stakes
– Pakistan suffered a lot during this “War on Terror” and this agreement is success of Pakistani narrative on Afghan War.
– Pakistan was left alone to deal with the mess post USSR withdrawal and this time Pakistan must work on political settlement prior to US with drawl.
– Afghan refugee crisis remained a major issue for Pakistan. finally, it can come to an end.
– Pakistan can capitalize on the leverage it has on different afghan segments in-order to form a non-hostile government in Afghanistan.
– Security, Economy, Media, Trade, Drug and human trafficking and many other sectors are waiting for Pakistan’s investment and cooperation.
Important Note: Optimism is a good thing but the other side of the picture is very blur War torn Afghanistan having weak institutions will be highly vulnerable of becoming prey of forces hostile to Pakistan, The social fabric of Afghan society has been destroyed and many spoilers can push for division of Afghanistan on ethnic, Sectarian grounds.
